Breaking it down: Padres vs. Warriors

How do you split an atom, especially when the difference between the two entities being compared are infinitesimally close?

The Serra Padres enter Saturday's CCS-Division I championship game at Excite Park – the first pitch is slated for about 8 p.m. – with a 25-6 record. The Valley Christian Warriors are 25-6-1.

Serra has a run differential of 107 runs. Valley has outscored its opponents by 108 runs. The Padres had a 10-game winning streak to start the season. The Warriors' best run is 10 wins and a tie.

The WCAL rivals – the only teams to top the PeninsulaPrepBaseball.com weekly rankings this year – are evenly matched. They split their season series in early April and grabbed the top two seeds when the CCS brackets were announced 12 days ago.

But if you look closely, it doesn't take long to figure out that they've gotten to Saturday's title game quite differently. Serra brings a proven offense – one that can hit home runs or steal bases and play a little small ball (11 sacrifice flies and 16 sacrifice bunts) – to San Jose, while Valley's calling card all season has been its pitching. Deep and dominant pitching.

Conventional wisdom says good pitching usually wins out over good hitting. That said, this game is Valley's to win, right? Not so fast. That would be lazy analysis and if we've proven nothing else in our season of covering high school baseball on the Peninsula, we're not lazy.

So, let's break it down more. Let's go deeper.

Riley Lim, upper left, Kelley Crawford, upper center, and Nate Hui, upper right, could be the pitchers for Serra Saturday's CCS-Division I championship, where they'll go against Brock Ketelsen, lower left, and Kole Laubach, lower right, of Valley Christian. Photos courtesy of Lee Harrison and GBuckPhoto.

Pitching

Advantage: Valley Christian

Serra has a deep staff, but Valley has a staff that is historically deep – with two Stanford signees, another to USC and still another to UC-Santa Barbara. Coach John Diatte has a once-in-a-life pitching staff.

And while Serra is no slouch on the mound, on paper, Valley is better.

The Padres enter Saturday with an impressive team earned-run average of 2.28, but that's nearly a run more than the 1.36 allowed by the Warriors.

Davis Minton started throwing midway through the season and junior Kelley Crawford found his groove. Add first-team WCAL right-hander Riley Lim to the mix and the Padres have a reliable rotation.

Relievers Richie Calderon, Aiden Waters and Nate Hui (and that's not even counting on Ian Josephson, who might get an inning on Saturday) and this is a staff that can eat a lot of innings and wins a ton of games.

Davis, who threw five innings in Wednesday's 7-4 semifinal win over Saint Francis, is not an option. Mat Keplinger said Saturday will be an "all-hands-on-deck" kind of game, as you'd expect in a championship contest.

It's been well-documented just how dominant the Warriors have been on the mound this year. They had combined for 10 shutouts and have limited the opposition to two runs or fewer 25 times.

Valley threw Quinten Marsh and Rohan Kosanagottu in Wednesday's 4-2 semifinal victory over Los Gatos. That leaves Brock Ketelsen, the WCAL pitcher of the year, and Kole Laubach, who took home those honors last year, as Diatte's top choices.

Not a bad decision to have. He can also bring Chris Buck and Quentin Medrado out of the bullpen.

On the mound

Valley Christian -- Quinten Marsh (7-2, 0.82 ERA), Brock Ketelsen (5-0, 0.88 ERA, 3 saves), Kole Laubach (5-3, 1.44 ERA), Rohan Kasanagottu (5-1, 1.42 ERA, 7 saves), Chris Buck (2-0, 1.24 ERA, 1 save).

Serra -- Riley Lim (6-0. 2.39 ERA), Kelley Crawford (4-2, 1.91 ERA), Davis Minton (2-2, 1.48 ERA, 1 save), Aiden Waters (5-0, 1.20 ERA), Nate Hui (1-0, 1.57 ERA, 6 saves), Richie Calderon (5-0, 2.45 ERA, 1 save), Ian Josephson (2-1, 3.77 ERA).

Ian Josephson, upper left, Evan Bradshaw, upper center, and Davis Minton, upper right, are the top three hitters in the Serra lineup. Jordan Ortiz, lower left, Brock Ketelsen, lower center, and Quinten March, pace Valley Christian's offensive attack. Photos courtesy of Lee Harrison and GBuckPhoto.

Offense

Advantage: Serra

With all due respect to Marsh, who captured the WCAL batting title and brings a .518 batting average into Saturday's game, this season has been a two-steps-forward-one-step back kind of year for the Warriors.

Brock Ketelsen has been solid, but the season-ending shoulder injury to Hunter Fujimoto during the WCAL took away a main contributor at the top of the order. Christian Navarez has stepped into the No. 2 hole admirably, while catcher Jordan Ortiz has been hot in the month of May, as has left fielder Logan Mull, who returned to the lineup after getting hobbled for the CCS opener.

Middle infielders Nathan Choi and Colton Hadfield cooled considerably in the second half of the season.

If Marsh is the WCAL player of the year, Ian Josephson is just a half-step behind. The senior shortstop stole bases and hit for power out of the leadoff spot. The hamstring injury that kept him from running at mid-season is behind him.

And the Padres follow Josephson with Evan Bradshaw, Davis Minton, Jack Armstrong, Tyler Harrison, Aaron Minton, Aaron Maier, Nate Hui and whichever designated hitter Keplinger chooses – perhaps Jack Wessell or William Walbridge.

Maier has been Serra's hottest hitter with five hits in two CCS games, while Hui has four hits.

At the plate

Valley Christian

Brock Ketelsen, cf/p (.303, 5 HRs, 23 RBI), Christian Navarez, (.333 17 runs), Quinten Marsh, rf (.518, 44 hits, 29 RBI, 2 HRs), Jordan Ortiz c,(.315, 25 hits, 19 RBI), Logan Mull, lf, (.355, 22 hits, 15 RBI), Colton Hadfield, ss (.258, 17 runs, 17 RBI, 1 HR), Kelan Cunningham, 3b (.125 3 RBI), Nathan Choi, 2b (.217, 10 run, 7 RBI).

Serra

Ian Josephson, ss (.475, 7 HRs, 25 RBI, 47 hits, 36 runs, 24 SBs), Evan Bradshaw, 2b (.388, 40 hits, 24 RBI, 13 SBs), Davis Minton, 3b (.365, 35 hits, 24 runs, 23 RBI, 7 SBs), Jack Armstrong, c (.278, 22 hits, 18 RBI), Tyler Harrison, cf (.322, 29 hits, 4 HRs, 22 RBI, 9 SBs), Aaron Minton, rf (.258, 2 HRs, 16 runs, 14 RBI, 9 SBs), Aaron Maier, cf (.345, 19 hits, 9 RBI), Nate Hui, 1b (.275, 19 hits, 12 RBI, 14 SBs), Jack Wessell, dh (.286, 16 runs, 8 SBs).

Defense

Advantage: Serra

Here's where the atom slicing begins. Distinguishing between two very good defenses comes down to which team has made more plays this year.

Valley fans will be quick to point to Ketelsen reaching over the fence in left-centerfield to steal a game-tying home run from St. Ignatius Prep junior Archer Horn. That was a big play. A game-ender. Meanwhile, Jordan Ortiz is among the steadiest catchers on the Peninsula, while since the injury to Fujimoto, Quinten Marsh has made the move from left field to right field without issue.

Valley's pitching racked up more than 300 strikeouts and that made it easier on a a defense that committed just 27 errors and had a field percentage – minus the strikeouts – of .955.

Meanwhile, Serra has a fielding percentage – minus the strikeouts – of .959. It has committed 32 errors but has 173 more chances in the field. The defense has been forced to make more plays and, by and large, it has.

The Padres are stronger up the middle. Shortstop Ian Josephson and second baseman Evan Bradshaw are a useful double play combination, while Jack Armstrong may not have Jordan Ortiz's reputation, but is a solid catcher. The outfield of Aaron Maier, Tyler Harrison and Aaron Minton has become a strength.

In the field

Valley Christian

c- Jordan Ortiz (315 total chances, 2 errors, .994 fielding percentage), 1b- Caleb Najar (47 total chances, 0 errors), 2b- Nathan Choi (50 assists, 33 putouts, 2 errors, .976 fielding percentage), ss- Colton Hadfield (58 assists, 24 putouts, 10 errors, .891 fielding percentage), 3b- Kelan Cunningham (18 putouts, 14 assists, 1 error, .970 fielding percentage), lf- Logan Mull (13 putouts, 3 assists, 1 error (.941 fielding percentage), cf- Brock Ketelsen (26 putouts, 4 assists, 0 errors), rf- Quinten Marsh (86 putouts, 8 assists, 1 error (.989 fielding percentage).

Serra

c- Jack Armstrong (217 total chances, 2 errors, .991 fielding percentage), 1b- Nate Hui (51 putouts, 22 assists, 4 errors, .948 fielding percentage), 2b- Evan Bradshaw (37 putouts, 62 assists, 4 errors, .961 fielding percentage), ss- Ian Josephson (39 putouts, 70 assists, 4 errors, .965 fielding percentage), 3b- Davis Minton (14 putouts, 36 assists, 5 errors, .909 fielding percentage), lf- Aaron Maier (21 putouts, 1 assist, 2 errors, .917 fielding percentage), cf- Tyler Harrison (55 putouts, 1 assist, 0 errors), rf- Aaron Minton (36 putouts, 1 assist, 0 errors).

Who wins?

We expect this one to be a low-scoring game that comes down the final out with the outcomes still on the line.

Valley Christian and Serra have had exceptional years, and each will be playing in next week's NorCal tournament. An added bonus is that the winner of Saturday's game is in line to host a game.

We'll know for sure on Sunday when the seeding committee meets. In truth both John Diatte and Mat Keplinger would rather have a CCS championship. Diatte knows a thing or two about winning this crown. He has 10 titles.

Keplinger is seeking his first.

We think he gets it.

Serra 3, Valley Christian 2